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Alexandria, VA – A fun, new survey from Vox Populi Polling found that 22 percent of Americans plan to leave Santa chocolate chip cookies this Christmas and 16 percent said say they will leave sugar cookies. Among those surveyed, 53 percent of Americans say that family gatherings are their favorite thing about Christmas and 38 percent say it’s the shopping and commercialization. A plurality of respondents listed “It’s a Wonderful Life” as their favorite Christmas movie, followed by “A Christmas Story” and “Miracle on 34th Street.”

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.


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81 Percent Say They Will Spend Less Than $1,000


Alexandria, VA – 
A new Vox Populi Polling holiday consumer survey found that 43 percent of Americans plan to spend less this year on Christmas gifts. According to the survey, 22 percent said they plan to spend more and 35 percent said about the same. Among those surveyed, 81 percent say they will spend less than $1,000, 56 percent say they will spend less than $500 and 30 percent say they will spend less than $250.

Democrats plan to spend less than Republicans, 87 percent of Democrats plan to spend less than $1,000 compared to 75 percent of Republicans. One thing is clear about gift giving, young people still love Apple products with 46 percent of 18-29 year olds expecting someone in their family to get a gift from Apple this year.

“Despite surveys indicating Americans’ economic confidence improving, a plurality of Americans plan to spend less this year on Christmas gifts,” said Vox Populi Polling Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe.

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.

 



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More Republicans Than Democrats Identify Christmas as Primarily a Religious Holiday


Alexandria, VA – 
A new Vox Populi Polling holiday survey found that 56 percent of Americans view Christmas as primarily a religious holiday, while 21 percent view it as a cultural holiday. That number breaks down differently along party lines; 69% of Republicans identify Christmas as primarily a religious holiday, compared to 52% of Democrats and 47% of Independents. Among those surveyed, 53 percent said that family gatherings are their favorite part of Christmas, with a religious ceremony or reflection listed second at 19 percent.

“In the age of political correctness, the majority of Americans will be celebrating this Christmas as a religious holiday,” said Vox Populi Polling Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Interestingly, more Republicans identify Christmas as a religious holiday than Democrats or Independents.”

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.

 


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Alexandria, VA – A new Louisiana survey released by Vox Populi Polling today found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Cassidy leads Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu 53 to 42 percent, with 5 percent unsure. In addition, Cassidy is up big with Independents, winning with them 58 to 31 percent over Landrieu. Cassidy has seen a big  bump after the Nov. 4 open primary. In our recent Oct. 13-14 survey, Cassidy led Landrieu 48 to 44 percent in a head-to-head, with 8 percent unsure.

On the heels of last night’s vote on the Keystone XL Pipeline, it is interesting to note that voters are not moved by Mary Landrieu’s efforts to bring the legislation before the United States Senate for a floor vote. When asked if it made voters more likely to vote for the incumbent Democrat, 39 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Bill Cassidy and 32 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu.

Louisianans listed President Obama’s job performance as the greatest issue of concern as they head to the polls for the Dec. 6 runoff. ObamaCare, along with the economy and jobs, were cited as the second and third most important issues to Louisiana voters. According to the survey, 61 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama with only 38 percent of voters approving of his performance.


“Bill Cassidy heads into the Dec. 6 runoff with a huge lead over Senator Mary Landrieu,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Louisiana voters’ disdain for President Obama, coupled with the unpopularity of ObamaCare in the state, could be influential in their decision making as they cast their ballots next month.”


METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 761 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.55%. 626 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted November 16-17, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To view the results, click here.


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Alexandria, VA - Since launching in April 2014, Vox Populi has conducted more than 30 public and private surveys. After our inaugural election cycle, we are proud to announce that in the final two weeks before the election we showed the correct candidate winning in six out of eight races. Additionally, the average polling error was 3.6 points in those contests, just above the 3.3 point polling error of the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of polls. Polling error is the difference between the margin of victory shown in a poll and the actual margin of victory in the election.

The 2014 midterm elections proved to be a difficult challenge for many pollsters. Despite this, Vox Populi performed well in the races we surveyed in the final weeks before the election. There are two primary measures of a public survey’s effectiveness: whether it accurately predicts the winner and how close it is to the final outcome (polling error). 

The chart below shows Vox Populi’s polling error in several major senate and governor’s races stacked up against the RCP polling average as well as Public Policy Polling (PPP), a similarly situated firm. The data show that Vox Populi often performed as well or better than the RCP Average.

The blue bars in the graph show PPP’s polling error, the red bars show Vox Populi’s polling error, and the green bars show the polling error of the RCP Average. A polling error of zero would mean that the poll predicted the margin of victory perfectly. An analysis of the races Vox Populi surveyed shows that our results differed favorably from those of other pollsters in several of these key races, including Senate races in North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia, as well as governor’s races in Georgia and Colorado.

Notably, Vox Populi was off by a mere 3.2 points in the Virginia Senate race, while the RCP Average of polls missed the outcome by 8.9 points, more than doubling Vox Populi’s polling error.

Vox Populi was also one of the only public pollsters to show Thom Tillis leading in the North Carolina Senate race in the final week before the election, again picking up late movement towards the Republican. The RCP Average showed Thom Tillis losing by 1.2 points at Election Day.

The table below shows which of the races mentioned above Vox Populi, PPP, and the RCP Average called correctly this cycle. While many are quick to dismiss polling firms that use innovative methods, such as Vox Populi or PPP, the chart below shows that we can be effective.

Our poorest performance came in New Hampshire, as both the graph and table above make evident. This is due to a variety of factors. While polling professionals typically discuss turnout models and past vote history, we also tend to discount that campaigns and organizations matter. New Hampshire is a vivid reminder of this.

New Hampshire Democrats turned out at a higher rate than expected based on their self-reported interest in the election.  And while the New Hampshire Republican candidates running for federal races performed similarly to GOP candidates in 2010, the Democrats outperformed their 2010 efforts substantially. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter and Congresswoman Kuster received more than 21,000 and 25,000 more votes respectively than they did in 2010. This led us to overestimate Republican turnout by 7 points, overestimate the number of older voters who would turn out, and miss an increase among 18-29 year old voters.

Polling is increasingly difficult and involves a great amount of assumption and uncertainty. This was clearly demonstrated by the difficulty that pollsters had in accurately predicting so many of the races this November. Vox Populi welcomes this challenge and we will continue to conduct timely and accurate surveys during the 2016 election cycle. 




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Recent Posts

Alexandria, VA – A fun, new survey from Vox Populi Polling found that 22 percent of Americans plan to leave Santa chocolate chip cookies this Christmas and 16 percent said say they will leave sugar cookies. Among those surveyed, 53 percent of Americans say that family gatherings are their favorite thing about Christmas and 38 percent say it’s the shopping and commercialization. A plurality of respondents listed “It’s a Wonderful Life” as their favorite Christmas movie, followed by “A Christmas Story” and “Miracle on 34th Street.”

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.


» Read More

81 Percent Say They Will Spend Less Than $1,000


Alexandria, VA – 
A new Vox Populi Polling holiday consumer survey found that 43 percent of Americans plan to spend less this year on Christmas gifts. According to the survey, 22 percent said they plan to spend more and 35 percent said about the same. Among those surveyed, 81 percent say they will spend less than $1,000, 56 percent say they will spend less than $500 and 30 percent say they will spend less than $250.

Democrats plan to spend less than Republicans, 87 percent of Democrats plan to spend less than $1,000 compared to 75 percent of Republicans. One thing is clear about gift giving, young people still love Apple products with 46 percent of 18-29 year olds expecting someone in their family to get a gift from Apple this year.

“Despite surveys indicating Americans’ economic confidence improving, a plurality of Americans plan to spend less this year on Christmas gifts,” said Vox Populi Polling Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe.

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.

 



» Read More

More Republicans Than Democrats Identify Christmas as Primarily a Religious Holiday


Alexandria, VA – 
A new Vox Populi Polling holiday survey found that 56 percent of Americans view Christmas as primarily a religious holiday, while 21 percent view it as a cultural holiday. That number breaks down differently along party lines; 69% of Republicans identify Christmas as primarily a religious holiday, compared to 52% of Democrats and 47% of Independents. Among those surveyed, 53 percent said that family gatherings are their favorite part of Christmas, with a religious ceremony or reflection listed second at 19 percent.

“In the age of political correctness, the majority of Americans will be celebrating this Christmas as a religious holiday,” said Vox Populi Polling Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Interestingly, more Republicans identify Christmas as a religious holiday than Democrats or Independents.”

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.

 


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