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Vox Populi Polling
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About Us

Vox Populi Polling designs and fields surveys that uncover what is happening within the political and public policy landscape to deliver the results to the public.

Our goal is to understand the issues that are driving the American people and the public political discourse. The Pop Polling team is experienced at all levels of politics, from local to presidential elections. The team brings backgrounds in survey research, communications, advanced analytics, statistics, and political campaign management. Our team is committed to putting that knowledge and experience to work to provide the public with unique and timely insights on the American electorate.

Over the course of successive election cycles, our team has tested and refined a high-quality survey research methodology that limits respondent costs, better reaches difficult demographics, and safeguards the integrity of a representative sample. With Pop Polling, we will bring the knowledge and expertise our pollsters have been delivering to clients for decades to the public.

Our Methodology

Vox Populi Polling conducts surveys for a wide variety of clients for private and public consumption. We provide the most accurate results through a combination of automated landline and mobile surveys.

To reach certain sample demographics and fulfill target quotas, Pop Polling employs a mixed-mode approach to surveys, which includes mobile and traditional landline phone completes. Though the exact proportion of each method changes depending on the target audience, a typical survey includes roughly 20% mobile completes. Mobile interviews help us fulfill quotas for hard to reach demographics. Landline calling is conducted using automated telephone surveys, with benefits including reduced costs, fielding time, and interviewer bias.

Vox Pop Polling employs stratified sampling to achieve an accurate, generalizable representation of opinion. We utilize this technique by dividing the entire population of interest into groups based on important characteristics (age, sex, region, etc.). We use listed sample for our landline interviews as a way to safeguard the integrity of our representative audience. A listed sample typically includes demographic and geographic information that can be employed during the analysis.

In order to identify target audiences, we utilize pre- and post-survey screens for registration status and voter history. These screens significantly improve how reflective the sample is to the actual voting population. Finally, Pop Polling weights survey results based on projected voter demographics. We do not weight on partisan affiliation or identification, helping reduce the risk of any bias during our analysis process.

About Us

Pop Polling is a new approach to a tested science. We will deliver answers as to the issues, candidates and causes that are driving the American electorate.

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Recent Posts

Alexandria, VA – A new Louisiana survey released by Vox Populi Polling today found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Cassidy leads Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu 53 to 42 percent, with 5 percent unsure. In addition, Cassidy is up big with Independents, winning with them 58 to 31 percent over Landrieu. Cassidy has seen a big  bump after the Nov. 4 open primary. In our recent Oct. 13-14 survey, Cassidy led Landrieu 48 to 44 percent in a head-to-head, with 8 percent unsure.

On the heels of last night’s vote on the Keystone XL Pipeline, it is interesting to note that voters are not moved by Mary Landrieu’s efforts to bring the legislation before the United States Senate for a floor vote. When asked if it made voters more likely to vote for the incumbent Democrat, 39 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Bill Cassidy and 32 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu.

Louisianans listed President Obama’s job performance as the greatest issue of concern as they head to the polls for the Dec. 6 runoff. ObamaCare, along with the economy and jobs, were cited as the second and third most important issues to Louisiana voters. According to the survey, 61 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama with only 38 percent of voters approving of his performance.

“Bill Cassidy heads into the Dec. 6 runoff with a huge lead over Senator Mary Landrieu,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Louisiana voters’ disdain for President Obama, coupled with the unpopularity of ObamaCare in the state, could be influential in their decision making as they cast their ballots next month.”

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 761 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.55%. 626 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted November 16-17, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To view the results, click here.

» Read More

Alexandria, VA - Since launching in April 2014, Vox Populi has conducted more than 30 public and private surveys. After our inaugural election cycle, we are proud to announce that in the final two weeks before the election we showed the correct candidate winning in six out of eight races. Additionally, the average polling error was 3.6 points in those contests, just above the 3.3 point polling error of the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of polls. Polling error is the difference between the margin of victory shown in a poll and the actual margin of victory in the election.

The 2014 midterm elections proved to be a difficult challenge for many pollsters. Despite this, Vox Populi performed well in the races we surveyed in the final weeks before the election. There are two primary measures of a public survey’s effectiveness: whether it accurately predicts the winner and how close it is to the final outcome (polling error). 

The chart below shows Vox Populi’s polling error in several major senate and governor’s races stacked up against the RCP polling average as well as Public Policy Polling (PPP), a similarly situated firm. The data show that Vox Populi often performed as well or better than the RCP Average.

The blue bars in the graph show PPP’s polling error, the red bars show Vox Populi’s polling error, and the green bars show the polling error of the RCP Average. A polling error of zero would mean that the poll predicted the margin of victory perfectly. An analysis of the races Vox Populi surveyed shows that our results differed favorably from those of other pollsters in several of these key races, including Senate races in North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia, as well as governor’s races in Georgia and Colorado.

Notably, Vox Populi was off by a mere 3.2 points in the Virginia Senate race, while the RCP Average of polls missed the outcome by 8.9 points, more than doubling Vox Populi’s polling error.

Vox Populi was also one of the only public pollsters to show Thom Tillis leading in the North Carolina Senate race in the final week before the election, again picking up late movement towards the Republican. The RCP Average showed Thom Tillis losing by 1.2 points at Election Day.

The table below shows which of the races mentioned above Vox Populi, PPP, and the RCP Average called correctly this cycle. While many are quick to dismiss polling firms that use innovative methods, such as Vox Populi or PPP, the chart below shows that we can be effective.

Our poorest performance came in New Hampshire, as both the graph and table above make evident. This is due to a variety of factors. While polling professionals typically discuss turnout models and past vote history, we also tend to discount that campaigns and organizations matter. New Hampshire is a vivid reminder of this.

New Hampshire Democrats turned out at a higher rate than expected based on their self-reported interest in the election.  And while the New Hampshire Republican candidates running for federal races performed similarly to GOP candidates in 2010, the Democrats outperformed their 2010 efforts substantially. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter and Congresswoman Kuster received more than 21,000 and 25,000 more votes respectively than they did in 2010. This led us to overestimate Republican turnout by 7 points, overestimate the number of older voters who would turn out, and miss an increase among 18-29 year old voters.

Polling is increasingly difficult and involves a great amount of assumption and uncertainty. This was clearly demonstrated by the difficulty that pollsters had in accurately predicting so many of the races this November. Vox Populi welcomes this challenge and we will continue to conduct timely and accurate surveys during the 2016 election cycle. 

» Read More
Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi survey found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Scott Brown is leading Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen 49 to 45 percent, with 6 percent unsure. The survey also found that Republican gubernatorial candidate Walt Havenstein now leads Democrat Governor Maggie Hassan 47 to 44 percent, with 8 percent unsure. Despite winning New Hampshire in 2012, President Obama approval ratings stand at a mere 41 percent.

Vox Populi has conducted three surveys in New Hampshire over the past few months. In May, we had Shaheen leading Brown 47 to 35 percent, and Maggie Hassan holding a 13 percent lead. In September, we had Brown leading Shaheen 47 to 43 percent and Hassan’s lead over Walt Havenstein tightening to 47-43 percent.

Both Brown and Havenstein appear to be benefiting from the unpopularity of President Obama and his signature healthcare law. Among independents, Obama holds a 37 percent approval rating with 53 percent strongly disapproving.

“Heading into Election Day, Scott Brown holds a lead in New Hampshire,” said Vox Populi spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Our survey is showing Walt Havenstein commanding his first lead of the year against Governor Maggie Hassan. Havenstein’s improvements have come as undecided voters and leaners have moved in his direction."

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 638 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. 544 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 94 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 27-28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.

» Read More

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