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Alexandria, VA – A new Louisiana survey released by Vox Populi Polling today found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Cassidy leads Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu 53 to 42 percent, with 5 percent unsure. In addition, Cassidy is up big with Independents, winning with them 58 to 31 percent over Landrieu. Cassidy has seen a big  bump after the Nov. 4 open primary. In our recent Oct. 13-14 survey, Cassidy led Landrieu 48 to 44 percent in a head-to-head, with 8 percent unsure.

On the heels of last night’s vote on the Keystone XL Pipeline, it is interesting to note that voters are not moved by Mary Landrieu’s efforts to bring the legislation before the United States Senate for a floor vote. When asked if it made voters more likely to vote for the incumbent Democrat, 39 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Bill Cassidy and 32 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu.

Louisianans listed President Obama’s job performance as the greatest issue of concern as they head to the polls for the Dec. 6 runoff. ObamaCare, along with the economy and jobs, were cited as the second and third most important issues to Louisiana voters. According to the survey, 61 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama with only 38 percent of voters approving of his performance.


“Bill Cassidy heads into the Dec. 6 runoff with a huge lead over Senator Mary Landrieu,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Louisiana voters’ disdain for President Obama, coupled with the unpopularity of ObamaCare in the state, could be influential in their decision making as they cast their ballots next month.”


METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 761 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.55%. 626 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted November 16-17, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To view the results, click here.


» Read More

Alexandria, VA - Since launching in April 2014, Vox Populi has conducted more than 30 public and private surveys. After our inaugural election cycle, we are proud to announce that in the final two weeks before the election we showed the correct candidate winning in six out of eight races. Additionally, the average polling error was 3.6 points in those contests, just above the 3.3 point polling error of the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of polls. Polling error is the difference between the margin of victory shown in a poll and the actual margin of victory in the election.

The 2014 midterm elections proved to be a difficult challenge for many pollsters. Despite this, Vox Populi performed well in the races we surveyed in the final weeks before the election. There are two primary measures of a public survey’s effectiveness: whether it accurately predicts the winner and how close it is to the final outcome (polling error). 

The chart below shows Vox Populi’s polling error in several major senate and governor’s races stacked up against the RCP polling average as well as Public Policy Polling (PPP), a similarly situated firm. The data show that Vox Populi often performed as well or better than the RCP Average.

The blue bars in the graph show PPP’s polling error, the red bars show Vox Populi’s polling error, and the green bars show the polling error of the RCP Average. A polling error of zero would mean that the poll predicted the margin of victory perfectly. An analysis of the races Vox Populi surveyed shows that our results differed favorably from those of other pollsters in several of these key races, including Senate races in North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia, as well as governor’s races in Georgia and Colorado.

Notably, Vox Populi was off by a mere 3.2 points in the Virginia Senate race, while the RCP Average of polls missed the outcome by 8.9 points, more than doubling Vox Populi’s polling error.

Vox Populi was also one of the only public pollsters to show Thom Tillis leading in the North Carolina Senate race in the final week before the election, again picking up late movement towards the Republican. The RCP Average showed Thom Tillis losing by 1.2 points at Election Day.

The table below shows which of the races mentioned above Vox Populi, PPP, and the RCP Average called correctly this cycle. While many are quick to dismiss polling firms that use innovative methods, such as Vox Populi or PPP, the chart below shows that we can be effective.

Our poorest performance came in New Hampshire, as both the graph and table above make evident. This is due to a variety of factors. While polling professionals typically discuss turnout models and past vote history, we also tend to discount that campaigns and organizations matter. New Hampshire is a vivid reminder of this.

New Hampshire Democrats turned out at a higher rate than expected based on their self-reported interest in the election.  And while the New Hampshire Republican candidates running for federal races performed similarly to GOP candidates in 2010, the Democrats outperformed their 2010 efforts substantially. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter and Congresswoman Kuster received more than 21,000 and 25,000 more votes respectively than they did in 2010. This led us to overestimate Republican turnout by 7 points, overestimate the number of older voters who would turn out, and miss an increase among 18-29 year old voters.

Polling is increasingly difficult and involves a great amount of assumption and uncertainty. This was clearly demonstrated by the difficulty that pollsters had in accurately predicting so many of the races this November. Vox Populi welcomes this challenge and we will continue to conduct timely and accurate surveys during the 2016 election cycle. 




» Read More
Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi survey found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Scott Brown is leading Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen 49 to 45 percent, with 6 percent unsure. The survey also found that Republican gubernatorial candidate Walt Havenstein now leads Democrat Governor Maggie Hassan 47 to 44 percent, with 8 percent unsure. Despite winning New Hampshire in 2012, President Obama approval ratings stand at a mere 41 percent.

Vox Populi has conducted three surveys in New Hampshire over the past few months. In May, we had Shaheen leading Brown 47 to 35 percent, and Maggie Hassan holding a 13 percent lead. In September, we had Brown leading Shaheen 47 to 43 percent and Hassan’s lead over Walt Havenstein tightening to 47-43 percent.

Both Brown and Havenstein appear to be benefiting from the unpopularity of President Obama and his signature healthcare law. Among independents, Obama holds a 37 percent approval rating with 53 percent strongly disapproving.

“Heading into Election Day, Scott Brown holds a lead in New Hampshire,” said Vox Populi spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Our survey is showing Walt Havenstein commanding his first lead of the year against Governor Maggie Hassan. Havenstein’s improvements have come as undecided voters and leaners have moved in his direction."

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 638 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. 544 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 94 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 27-28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.


» Read More

Candidates are Leading With Independents in Closing Days

 

Alexandria, VA - A new Vox Populi survey,  sponsored by Ending Spending Action Fund, in Georgia shows that Republicans lead in both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Governor Nathan Deal is leading Democrat Jason Carter 49 to 42, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt getting 3 percent of the vote and 7 percent undecided. In the Senate race, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 48 to 43. Libertarian Amanda Swafford receives 3 percent support and another 6 percent remain undecided in this race.

Both Republican candidates receive strong support among Independents, with Governor Deal winning Independents 51 to 38 and Perdue leading 51 to 41. Deal and Perdue are also leading with women voters. If the election were held today, women would vote for Nathan Deal by a margin of 46 to 42 and for David Perdue by a margin of 45 to 43.

“David Perdue appears to have opened a small lead outside of the margin of error,” said Vox Populi Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Both Perdue and Deal owe their leads in part to their strength with Independents and female voters. However, both races remain close and there are a lot of undecided voters so the numbers could shift in the closing days.”

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 602 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%. All interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and were conducted October 28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.


» Read More
Race Tightens Heading Into Election Day
 

Alexandria, VA – A new survey from Vox Populi shows that the Virginia Senate race is tightening heading into Election Day. Democrat U.S. Senator Mark Warner leads his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie 44 to 40, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis receiving 5 percent of the vote.

Warner is narrowly beating Gillespie with Independents 38 to 37 percent, with Sarvis picking up 10 percent of their vote. There is a gender gap with Warner winning women 47 to 37 percent and Gillespie winning men 44 to 41 percent. Gillespie is performing the strongest in the West where he is up 55 to 38 percent and Warner is strongest in the Northern Virginia suburbs where he is up 47 to 39 percent. The survey also shows young voters breaking 37-31 in favor of Gillespie. Millennials’ growing dissatisfaction with President Obama and support for Republican candidates has been noted in other states as well.

“With less than a week until Election Day, Ed Gillespie has tightened a double-digit gap in Virginia,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn. “This race has been an uphill battle for Gillespie since the beginning, but this survey shows that the race is competitive and should be watched closely.”

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 734 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.6%. 599 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 27-28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To view the results, click here.






» Read More

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Alexandria, VA – A new Louisiana survey released by Vox Populi Polling today found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Cassidy leads Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu 53 to 42 percent, with 5 percent unsure. In addition, Cassidy is up big with Independents, winning with them 58 to 31 percent over Landrieu. Cassidy has seen a big  bump after the Nov. 4 open primary. In our recent Oct. 13-14 survey, Cassidy led Landrieu 48 to 44 percent in a head-to-head, with 8 percent unsure.

On the heels of last night’s vote on the Keystone XL Pipeline, it is interesting to note that voters are not moved by Mary Landrieu’s efforts to bring the legislation before the United States Senate for a floor vote. When asked if it made voters more likely to vote for the incumbent Democrat, 39 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Bill Cassidy and 32 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu.

Louisianans listed President Obama’s job performance as the greatest issue of concern as they head to the polls for the Dec. 6 runoff. ObamaCare, along with the economy and jobs, were cited as the second and third most important issues to Louisiana voters. According to the survey, 61 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama with only 38 percent of voters approving of his performance.


“Bill Cassidy heads into the Dec. 6 runoff with a huge lead over Senator Mary Landrieu,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Louisiana voters’ disdain for President Obama, coupled with the unpopularity of ObamaCare in the state, could be influential in their decision making as they cast their ballots next month.”


METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 761 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.55%. 626 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted November 16-17, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To view the results, click here.


» Read More

Alexandria, VA - Since launching in April 2014, Vox Populi has conducted more than 30 public and private surveys. After our inaugural election cycle, we are proud to announce that in the final two weeks before the election we showed the correct candidate winning in six out of eight races. Additionally, the average polling error was 3.6 points in those contests, just above the 3.3 point polling error of the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of polls. Polling error is the difference between the margin of victory shown in a poll and the actual margin of victory in the election.

The 2014 midterm elections proved to be a difficult challenge for many pollsters. Despite this, Vox Populi performed well in the races we surveyed in the final weeks before the election. There are two primary measures of a public survey’s effectiveness: whether it accurately predicts the winner and how close it is to the final outcome (polling error). 

The chart below shows Vox Populi’s polling error in several major senate and governor’s races stacked up against the RCP polling average as well as Public Policy Polling (PPP), a similarly situated firm. The data show that Vox Populi often performed as well or better than the RCP Average.

The blue bars in the graph show PPP’s polling error, the red bars show Vox Populi’s polling error, and the green bars show the polling error of the RCP Average. A polling error of zero would mean that the poll predicted the margin of victory perfectly. An analysis of the races Vox Populi surveyed shows that our results differed favorably from those of other pollsters in several of these key races, including Senate races in North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia, as well as governor’s races in Georgia and Colorado.

Notably, Vox Populi was off by a mere 3.2 points in the Virginia Senate race, while the RCP Average of polls missed the outcome by 8.9 points, more than doubling Vox Populi’s polling error.

Vox Populi was also one of the only public pollsters to show Thom Tillis leading in the North Carolina Senate race in the final week before the election, again picking up late movement towards the Republican. The RCP Average showed Thom Tillis losing by 1.2 points at Election Day.

The table below shows which of the races mentioned above Vox Populi, PPP, and the RCP Average called correctly this cycle. While many are quick to dismiss polling firms that use innovative methods, such as Vox Populi or PPP, the chart below shows that we can be effective.

Our poorest performance came in New Hampshire, as both the graph and table above make evident. This is due to a variety of factors. While polling professionals typically discuss turnout models and past vote history, we also tend to discount that campaigns and organizations matter. New Hampshire is a vivid reminder of this.

New Hampshire Democrats turned out at a higher rate than expected based on their self-reported interest in the election.  And while the New Hampshire Republican candidates running for federal races performed similarly to GOP candidates in 2010, the Democrats outperformed their 2010 efforts substantially. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter and Congresswoman Kuster received more than 21,000 and 25,000 more votes respectively than they did in 2010. This led us to overestimate Republican turnout by 7 points, overestimate the number of older voters who would turn out, and miss an increase among 18-29 year old voters.

Polling is increasingly difficult and involves a great amount of assumption and uncertainty. This was clearly demonstrated by the difficulty that pollsters had in accurately predicting so many of the races this November. Vox Populi welcomes this challenge and we will continue to conduct timely and accurate surveys during the 2016 election cycle. 




» Read More
Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi survey found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Scott Brown is leading Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen 49 to 45 percent, with 6 percent unsure. The survey also found that Republican gubernatorial candidate Walt Havenstein now leads Democrat Governor Maggie Hassan 47 to 44 percent, with 8 percent unsure. Despite winning New Hampshire in 2012, President Obama approval ratings stand at a mere 41 percent.

Vox Populi has conducted three surveys in New Hampshire over the past few months. In May, we had Shaheen leading Brown 47 to 35 percent, and Maggie Hassan holding a 13 percent lead. In September, we had Brown leading Shaheen 47 to 43 percent and Hassan’s lead over Walt Havenstein tightening to 47-43 percent.

Both Brown and Havenstein appear to be benefiting from the unpopularity of President Obama and his signature healthcare law. Among independents, Obama holds a 37 percent approval rating with 53 percent strongly disapproving.

“Heading into Election Day, Scott Brown holds a lead in New Hampshire,” said Vox Populi spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Our survey is showing Walt Havenstein commanding his first lead of the year against Governor Maggie Hassan. Havenstein’s improvements have come as undecided voters and leaners have moved in his direction."

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 638 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. 544 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 94 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 27-28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To see the results, click here.


» Read More

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