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Polls/News

  • Speaker Ryan Well Positioned for Re-Election

    on May 27, 2016

    8 out of 10 GOP Primary Voters Back Speaker

    Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi Polling survey shows Speaker Paul Ryan is well positioned to win not only the August GOP primary, but also the November general election. The poll of likely voters in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District found Ryan is leading his Republican primary challenger by 73 points, and enjoys an almost 20 point lead over a generic Democratic candidate.

    “It’s remarkable how well positioned Speaker Ryan is for re-election this year,” said Vox Populi Pollster Michael Meyers. “Looking at the results it is clear that Ryan’s opponent is not mounting a credible primary challenge and in the general election Ryan’s numbers are incredibly strong.”

    Ryan is not only dominating his primary contest, but he also leads with every age group, both men and women, and carries a near 2-to-1 lead among Independent general election voters. Among all candidates tested with name ID above 50%, Ryan is the only candidate with a net-positive name ID (+12), having more voters view him favorably than unfavorably. With only 11% of voters undecided, a majority of 54% would vote for Ryan if the general election were held today.

    In addition, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a dead heat race (38-38) inside Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.

    To view the full results, click here.

    Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 1,197 likely general election voters in Wisconsin CD-1 taken from a listed sample of registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.83%. 966 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 231 were conducted using mobile phones. All interviews were conducted May 22-23, 2016 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

     

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  • Despite Media Spotlight, SCOTUS Appointment Unlikely to Impact 2016 General Election

    on February 23, 2016

    Alexandria, VA -- Vox Populi Polling recently conducted a survey amongst likely voters to analyze voter sentiment around the issue of the open Supreme Court Justice seat following the recent death of Justice Antonin Scalia.

    Following a week of non-stop news coverage, polls indicate that the Supreme Court justice appointment is unlikely to impact voter decisions in the 2016 general election. Only 5% of likely voters believe the Supreme Court vacancy is the most important issue in deciding which presidential candidate to support, whereas 39% prioritized economic issues and 21% selected foreign affairs and national security. Similarly, voters indicated the most important issues for selecting a congressional candidate to support are the economy (37%) and foreign affairs (21%) with just 9% choosing the Supreme Court vacancy.

    “Media coverage doesn’t necessarily translate to influencing voter priorities,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn. “Despite the glare of the media spotlight and intense political rhetoric on both sides, the polls show that the American people are far more concerned with economic and foreign policy issues in selecting the next President of the United States.”

    More than a third (37%) of likely voters think President Obama should nominate a conservative to replace Justice Scalia, while 32% say that ideology should not matter in the selection process for a nominee. The poll also reveals:

    • The Supreme Court vacancy issue ranks last in importance for all presidential candidates except Hillary Clinton’s supporters, 15% of whom prioritized the vacancy.
    • Half of voters believe Obama should not wait in appointing a new Justice. 86% of Democrats want the President to appoint the new Supreme Court Justice while 68% of Republicans think it is too close to the end of his term.
    • Voters chose the two most polarized Justices (liberal Ruth Bader Ginsburg and conservative Clarence Thomas) as their “favorite” member of the bench. 14% of all respondents and 25% of Democrat respondents identify liberal Ruth Bader Ginsburg as their favorite justice, and 16% of the sample and 26% of polled Republicans recognize conservative Clarence Thomas as their favorite.

    Methodology:  The sample size for the survey is 811 likely active voters. The margin of error is +/ 3.4. All interviews were completed using a mix of automated telephone and mobile-based survey technology on February 17-18, 2016 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the full results, click here.
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  • Overwhelming Majority of American Voters Want More Protections for Online Communications

    on November 30, 2015

    “Support for strengthening online privacy spans across all ages, races and political affiliations. This level of support is typically unheard of in politics today. Considering implications for the upcoming 2016 elections, and the level of support among likely Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary voters, political candidates should take notice of this overwhelming support for ECPA reform,” said Michael Meyers of Vox Populi Polling. 

    The Digital 4th coalition commissioned a national survey and two state surveys of active registered voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Read the full memo here.

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  • Republican Voters Want Christie in Main GOP Debate

    on November 6, 2015

    Alexandria, VA -- Vox Populi Polling recently conducted a survey, sponsored by a PAC unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates, amongst likely Republican voters to analyze primary/caucus voter sentiment around the debates.

    Presidential candidates Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee were dropped to the undercard debate for the Fox Business/Wall Street Journal debate on November 10. However, 65% of likely Republican voters believe Christie should speak in the main debate, and 46% believe Huckabee should be on the stage. Interestingly, the survey results indicate that the majority of Republican voters (54%) believe Rand Paul should not be on the stage. Paul is currently slated to join the main debate, but only 38% thought he should be there. While 70% of voters confirmed that Carly Fiorina should participate in the main debate, only 16% of voters felt Lindsey Graham--who failed to make the debate entirely--should be on the main stage.

    The survey also indicates that Republican primary voters are very interested in the debates as  a whole - with or without Donald Trump.  88% say they will probably or definitely watch the debate and 81% would watch with our without Trump’s involvement.  When asked about which journalist would do the best job hosting a future GOP debate, top results included Bill O’Reilly (25%), Sean Hannity (16%), Rush Limbaugh (14%), and Mark Levin (11%). Additionally, following the recent GOP debate, 62% of likely Republican voters felt that the questions asked by the CNBC moderators were unfair.

    Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 768 Likely GOP Presidential Primary and Caucus goers drawn from a national sample of registered and modeled Republicans and Republican primary voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.5. All interviews were completed using automated telephone and all interviews were conducted November 5, 2015 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the full results, click here.

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  • KY Gov Elections a Jump Ball in Final Days

    on October 30, 2015

    Alexandria, VA – A new survey conducted by Vox Populi Polling amongst likely Kentucky voters found that the three-way race for Kentucky Governor remains tight and will likely come down to voter turnout.

    Top Numbers:

    Matt Bevin: 44%
    Jack Conway: 44%
    Drew Curtis:  6%

    (moe: +/- 3.9%)

    While the survey shows this is an exceptionally close race, Republican candidate Matt Bevin narrowly edges Democrat candidate Jack Conway 46-43 percent among self-reported Kentucky voters who say they will definitely head to the polls on Tuesday. Both candidates have an equal 79 percent share of their respective parties, but Bevin has a ten point advantage with Kentucky independents (38-28). Independent Drew Curtis is taking votes away from both candidates, but he is only slightly hurting Bevin’s numbers, with 43 percent of Curtis voters admitting they would vote for Bevin in a two-way race in comparison.

    “This is a jump ball election that will hinge upon voter turnout for all three candidates,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn. “The numbers for Bevin and Conway are incredibly tight, and their partisan share is equal. And the wild card is a third party candidate polling at 6%, and another 7% are still undecided.  The Kentucky gubernatorial election could come down to the wire as we watch the percentage of Republicans, Democrats, and independents who show up to the polls. Bevin has certainly closed the gap in recent weeks, but we’ll find out the full results on Tuesday.”

    Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 618 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2012 or 2014 general election or registered since the 2014 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. All interviews were conducted October 26-27, 2015 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the full results, click here.

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  • FL Senate Primary Poll: Grayson Poised to Pull Off Major Upset Against Murphy

    on June 19, 2015

    Grayson leads informed ballot, has higher name ID and favorables

    Alexandria, VA – A new survey conducted by Vox Populi Polling among Democrat primary voters in Florida found that Rep. Alan Grayson is poised to pull off an upset against Rep. Patrick Murphy in the race for Marco Rubio’s U.S. Senate seat. While Murphy leads Grayson on the initial ballot test by 34-24 percent, his lead dissipates once voters learn more about the candidates. Once informed, voters prefer Grayson 56-21 percent, with 24 percent of voters undecided.

    “Marco Rubio stepping down from the U.S. Senate to run for president ensures that the race to replace him in 2016 will be one of the most contested in the country." said Vox Populi Polling Pollster Brent Seaborn. “Democrats will have a tough primary on their hands if Reps. Grayson and Murphy run against each other. As voters learn more about the two candidates, Grayson is well positioned to pull off what would be a major upset to Democrats."

    Other key findings include:

    • 37 percent of Democrat voters have a somewhat or very favorable opinion of Grayson compared to 36 percent who view Murphy favorably.
    • Grayson leads in name recognition, with 42 percent of voters saying they are not aware of Grayson compared to 47 percent who are unaware of Murphy.
    • When voters learned that Grayson opposed food stamp cuts and Murphy supported them, 57 percent of voters were more inclined to support Grayson.
    • When hearing that Grayson supported a more progressive budget and Murphy opposed it, 66 percent of voters were more likely to vote for Grayson.
    • 75 percent said it was either very important or somewhat important to have a progressive nominee who will stand up to big corporations and Wall Street.
    • 56 percent of voters were either somewhat or much less likely to support Murphy when they found out he is a former Republican who donated to Romney.

    Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 717 likely Democratic primary voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters in Florida that are modeled Democrats or Independents. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 501 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 216 were conducted using mobile based survey technology. All interviews were conducted June 15-17, 2015, by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the full results, click here.

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  • Email Scandal: Americans Don’t Trust Hillary Clinton

    on March 12, 2015

    Majority of Americans believe email controversy will hurt Clinton’s 2016 ambitions

     

    Alexandria, VA – On the heels of the controversy surrounding Hillary Clinton’s exclusive use of private emails on a private server for official government correspondence, Vox Populi Polling conducted a nationwide survey to gauge Americans’ reactions. The numbers don’t look good for Clinton.

    Not only do the majority of Americans, 52 percent, not trust Hillary Clinton, but 57 percent of Independents either somewhat distrust or greatly distrust her. A plurality of voters believe that Clinton intentionally withheld information and 68 percent believe that she risked American security. Americans also believe that Hillary Clinton should turn over all emails immediately. Among those polled, 55 percent of respondents believe that the email controversy is either somewhat or very likely to have an impact on the 2016 presidential race.

    When asked about the Clinton Foundation receiving donations from foreign governments that were lobbying the State Department, a majority of voters believe that they were trying to buy influence with the U.S. government.

    “Hillary Clinton’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week has gotten even worse,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “The numbers illustrate that the controversy surrounding her emails is having a negative impact on public opinion of her. Not only do the majority of Americans not trust Hillary Clinton but they believe her use of private emails and a private server have risked American security. The response is so negative for Clinton that the majority of Americans believe it will impact the 2016 presidential election.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 909 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.3%. 700 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 209 were conducted using mobile based survey technology. All interviews were conducted March 10-11, 2015 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the results, click here.

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  • Oscars Poll: Plurality Believe American Sniper Should Win Academy Award for Best Picture

    on February 17, 2015

    Respondents say Clint Eastwood not being nominated for best director is the biggest snub, disagree with Michael Moore

     

    Alexandria, VA – In anticipationof this year’s Oscars, Vox Populi Polling conducted a national survey asking a series of questions about the event. The results indicate that young viewers are excited for this year’s Academy Awards, with 43 percent of 18-45 year olds planning to tune in this Sunday. This key demographic has neglected the Oscars in recent years, but if these viewers follow through on their intentions to watch it could be a great ratings night for ABC. African American respondents also seem intent to watch the Oscars, with 34 percent saying they will tune in despite the absence of a single black nominee in an acting category.

    Vox Populi also asked questions about the Oscar nominated film, American Sniper. Despite the controversy surrounding the film, American Sniper is still America’s pick for Best Picture, with 38 percent of those surveyed believing it should beat out the other nominees. Respondents also thought that the biggest snub at this year’s Oscars was Clint Eastwood not being nominated for Best Director. Further, when asked if American Sniper was a pro-war movie, an anti-war movie or something in between, 70 percent of those who have seen the film said it was something in between.

    The majority of respondents disagreed with Michael Moore’s controversial statement that snipers were cowards. A total of 77 percent either somewhat or strongly disagreed with his statement. Among those surveyed, 90 percent of Republicans disagreed with his comments, along with 63 percent of Democrats. However, 37 percent of Democrats did agree with Moore’s statement. 

    “Although American Sniper has been at the center of controversy, a plurality of respondents disagree with the movie’s critics,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Not only do a plurality of the individuals who were polled believe the movie should receive the Academy Award for Best Picture, but they also believe that the movie’s director Clint Eastwood was snubbed. They also soundly reject liberal movie maker Michael Moore’s statement that snipers are cowards.”

    Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 839 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%. 577 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 262 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted February 9-10, 2015 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the toplines, click here.

     

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  • Fun Holiday Survey: Americans Plan to Leave Chocolate Chip Cookies for Santa

    on December 19, 2014

    Alexandria, VA – A fun, new survey from Vox Populi Polling found that 22 percent of Americans plan to leave Santa chocolate chip cookies this Christmas and 16 percent said say they will leave sugar cookies. Among those surveyed, 53 percent of Americans say that family gatherings are their favorite thing about Christmas and 38 percent say it’s the shopping and commercialization. A plurality of respondents listed “It’s a Wonderful Life” as their favorite Christmas movie, followed by “A Christmas Story” and “Miracle on 34th Street.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To see the results, click here.

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  • Holiday Consumer Survey: Americans Will Spend Less This Year Than Last

    on December 18, 2014

    81 Percent Say They Will Spend Less Than $1,000


    Alexandria, VA – 
    A new Vox Populi Polling holiday consumer survey found that 43 percent of Americans plan to spend less this year on Christmas gifts. According to the survey, 22 percent said they plan to spend more and 35 percent said about the same. Among those surveyed, 81 percent say they will spend less than $1,000, 56 percent say they will spend less than $500 and 30 percent say they will spend less than $250.

    Democrats plan to spend less than Republicans, 87 percent of Democrats plan to spend less than $1,000 compared to 75 percent of Republicans. One thing is clear about gift giving, young people still love Apple products with 46 percent of 18-29 year olds expecting someone in their family to get a gift from Apple this year.

    “Despite surveys indicating Americans’ economic confidence improving, a plurality of Americans plan to spend less this year on Christmas gifts,” said Vox Populi Polling Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe.

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To see the results, click here.

     


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  • Holiday Survey: Majority of Americans View Christmas as Primarily a Religious Holiday

    on December 17, 2014

    More Republicans Than Democrats Identify Christmas as Primarily a Religious Holiday


    Alexandria, VA – 
    A new Vox Populi Polling holiday survey found that 56 percent of Americans view Christmas as primarily a religious holiday, while 21 percent view it as a cultural holiday. That number breaks down differently along party lines; 69% of Republicans identify Christmas as primarily a religious holiday, compared to 52% of Democrats and 47% of Independents. Among those surveyed, 53 percent said that family gatherings are their favorite part of Christmas, with a religious ceremony or reflection listed second at 19 percent.

    “In the age of political correctness, the majority of Americans will be celebrating this Christmas as a religious holiday,” said Vox Populi Polling Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Interestingly, more Republicans identify Christmas as a religious holiday than Democrats or Independents.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 711 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. 498 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 213 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted December 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To see the results, click here.

     

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  • LA Poll: Cassidy Up Big Over Landrieu

    on November 19, 2014

    Alexandria, VA – A new Louisiana survey released by Vox Populi Polling today found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Cassidy leads Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu 53 to 42 percent, with 5 percent unsure. In addition, Cassidy is up big with Independents, winning with them 58 to 31 percent over Landrieu. Cassidy has seen a big  bump after the Nov. 4 open primary. In our recent Oct. 13-14 survey, Cassidy led Landrieu 48 to 44 percent in a head-to-head, with 8 percent unsure.

    On the heels of last night’s vote on the Keystone XL Pipeline, it is interesting to note that voters are not moved by Mary Landrieu’s efforts to bring the legislation before the United States Senate for a floor vote. When asked if it made voters more likely to vote for the incumbent Democrat, 39 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Bill Cassidy and 32 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu.

    Louisianans listed President Obama’s job performance as the greatest issue of concern as they head to the polls for the Dec. 6 runoff. ObamaCare, along with the economy and jobs, were cited as the second and third most important issues to Louisiana voters. According to the survey, 61 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama with only 38 percent of voters approving of his performance.


    “Bill Cassidy heads into the Dec. 6 runoff with a huge lead over Senator Mary Landrieu,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Louisiana voters’ disdain for President Obama, coupled with the unpopularity of ObamaCare in the state, could be influential in their decision making as they cast their ballots next month.”


    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 761 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.55%. 626 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted November 16-17, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the results, click here.

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  • LA Poll: Cassidy Up Big Over Landrieu

    on November 19, 2014

    Alexandria, VA – A new Louisiana survey released by Vox Populi Polling today found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Cassidy leads Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu 53 to 42 percent, with 5 percent unsure. In addition, Cassidy is up big with Independents, winning with them 58 to 31 percent over Landrieu. Cassidy has seen a big bump after the Nov. 4 open primary. In our recent Oct. 13-14 survey, Cassidy led Landrieu 48 to 44 percent in a head-to-head, with 8 percent unsure.

    On the heels of last night’s United States Senate vote on the Keystone XL Pipeline, it is interesting to note that voters aren’t moved by Mary Landrieu’s efforts to bring the legislation before the Senate for a floor vote. When asked if it made voters more likely to vote for the incumbent Democrat, 39 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Bill Cassidy and 32 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu.

    Louisianans listed President Obama’s job performance as the greatest issue of concern as they head to the polls for the Dec. 6 runoff. ObamaCare, along with the economy and jobs, were cited as the second and third most important issues to Louisiana voters. According to the survey, 61 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama with only 38 percent of voters approving of his performance.

    “Bill Cassidy heads into the Dec. 6 runoff with a huge lead over Senator Mary Landrieu,” said Vox Populi Polling spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Louisiana voters’ disdain for President Obama, coupled with the unpopularity of ObamaCare in the state, could be influential in their decision making as they cast their ballots next month.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 761 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.55%. 626 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted November 16-17, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the results, click here.

     

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  • Vox Populi With Strong Polling Performance in 2014 Midterms

    on November 13, 2014

    Alexandria, VA - Since launching in April 2014, Vox Populi has conducted more than 30 public and private surveys. After our inaugural election cycle, we are proud to announce that in the final two weeks before the election we showed the correct candidate winning in six out of eight races. Additionally, the average polling error was 3.6 points in those contests, just above the 3.3 point polling error of the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of polls. Polling error is the difference between the margin of victory shown in a poll and the actual margin of victory in the election.

    The 2014 midterm elections proved to be a difficult challenge for many pollsters. Despite this, Vox Populi performed well in the races we surveyed in the final weeks before the election. There are two primary measures of a public survey’s effectiveness: whether it accurately predicts the winner and how close it is to the final outcome (polling error). 

    The chart below shows Vox Populi’s polling error in several major senate and governor’s races stacked up against the RCP polling average as well as Public Policy Polling (PPP), a similarly situated firm. The data show that Vox Populi often performed as well or better than the RCP Average.

    The blue bars in the graph show PPP’s polling error, the red bars show Vox Populi’s polling error, and the green bars show the polling error of the RCP Average. A polling error of zero would mean that the poll predicted the margin of victory perfectly. An analysis of the races Vox Populi surveyed shows that our results differed favorably from those of other pollsters in several of these key races, including Senate races in North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia, as well as governor’s races in Georgia and Colorado.

    Notably, Vox Populi was off by a mere 3.2 points in the Virginia Senate race, while the RCP Average of polls missed the outcome by 8.9 points, more than doubling Vox Populi’s polling error.

    Vox Populi was also one of the only public pollsters to show Thom Tillis leading in the North Carolina Senate race in the final week before the election, again picking up late movement towards the Republican. The RCP Average showed Thom Tillis losing by 1.2 points at Election Day.

    The table below shows which of the races mentioned above Vox Populi, PPP, and the RCP Average called correctly this cycle. While many are quick to dismiss polling firms that use innovative methods, such as Vox Populi or PPP, the chart below shows that we can be effective.

    Our poorest performance came in New Hampshire, as both the graph and table above make evident. This is due to a variety of factors. While polling professionals typically discuss turnout models and past vote history, we also tend to discount that campaigns and organizations matter. New Hampshire is a vivid reminder of this.

    New Hampshire Democrats turned out at a higher rate than expected based on their self-reported interest in the election.  And while the New Hampshire Republican candidates running for federal races performed similarly to GOP candidates in 2010, the Democrats outperformed their 2010 efforts substantially. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter and Congresswoman Kuster received more than 21,000 and 25,000 more votes respectively than they did in 2010. This led us to overestimate Republican turnout by 7 points, overestimate the number of older voters who would turn out, and miss an increase among 18-29 year old voters.

    Polling is increasingly difficult and involves a great amount of assumption and uncertainty. This was clearly demonstrated by the difficulty that pollsters had in accurately predicting so many of the races this November. Vox Populi welcomes this challenge and we will continue to conduct timely and accurate surveys during the 2016 election cycle. 



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  • NH Poll: Scott Brown and Walt Havenstein Lead in New Hampshire

    on October 31, 2014

    Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi survey found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Scott Brown is leading Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen 49 to 45 percent, with 6 percent unsure. The survey also found that Republican gubernatorial candidate Walt Havenstein now leads Democrat Governor Maggie Hassan 47 to 44 percent, with 8 percent unsure. Despite winning New Hampshire in 2012, President Obama approval ratings stand at a mere 41 percent.

    Vox Populi has conducted three surveys in New Hampshire over the past few months. In May, we had Shaheen leading Brown 47 to 35 percent, and Maggie Hassan holding a 13 percent lead. In September, we had Brown leading Shaheen 47 to 43 percent and Hassan’s lead over Walt Havenstein tightening to 47-43 percent.

    Both Brown and Havenstein appear to be benefiting from the unpopularity of President Obama and his signature healthcare law. Among independents, Obama holds a 37 percent approval rating with 53 percent strongly disapproving.

    “Heading into Election Day, Scott Brown holds a lead in New Hampshire,” said Vox Populi spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Our survey is showing Walt Havenstein commanding his first lead of the year against Governor Maggie Hassan. Havenstein’s improvements have come as undecided voters and leaners have moved in his direction."

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 638 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. 544 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 94 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 27-28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To see the results, click here.

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  • GA: Republicans Well Positioned in Governor and Senate Races

    on October 31, 2014

    Candidates are Leading With Independents in Closing Days

     

    Alexandria, VA - A new Vox Populi survey,  sponsored by Ending Spending Action Fund, in Georgia shows that Republicans lead in both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Governor Nathan Deal is leading Democrat Jason Carter 49 to 42, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt getting 3 percent of the vote and 7 percent undecided. In the Senate race, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 48 to 43. Libertarian Amanda Swafford receives 3 percent support and another 6 percent remain undecided in this race.

    Both Republican candidates receive strong support among Independents, with Governor Deal winning Independents 51 to 38 and Perdue leading 51 to 41. Deal and Perdue are also leading with women voters. If the election were held today, women would vote for Nathan Deal by a margin of 46 to 42 and for David Perdue by a margin of 45 to 43.

    “David Perdue appears to have opened a small lead outside of the margin of error,” said Vox Populi Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Both Perdue and Deal owe their leads in part to their strength with Independents and female voters. However, both races remain close and there are a lot of undecided voters so the numbers could shift in the closing days.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 602 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%. All interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and were conducted October 28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To see the results, click here.

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  • VA Poll: Ed Gillespie Gains Ground, Down By 4 Points

    on October 30, 2014

    Race Tightens Heading Into Election Day
     

    Alexandria, VA – A new survey from Vox Populi shows that the Virginia Senate race is tightening heading into Election Day. Democrat U.S. Senator Mark Warner leads his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie 44 to 40, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis receiving 5 percent of the vote.

    Warner is narrowly beating Gillespie with Independents 38 to 37 percent, with Sarvis picking up 10 percent of their vote. There is a gender gap with Warner winning women 47 to 37 percent and Gillespie winning men 44 to 41 percent. Gillespie is performing the strongest in the West where he is up 55 to 38 percent and Warner is strongest in the Northern Virginia suburbs where he is up 47 to 39 percent. The survey also shows young voters breaking 37-31 in favor of Gillespie. Millennials’ growing dissatisfaction with President Obama and support for Republican candidates has been noted in other states as well.

    “With less than a week until Election Day, Ed Gillespie has tightened a double-digit gap in Virginia,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn. “This race has been an uphill battle for Gillespie since the beginning, but this survey shows that the race is competitive and should be watched closely.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 734 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.6%. 599 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 135 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 27-28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the results, click here.





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  • CO Poll: Gardner and Hickenlooper Up

    on October 30, 2014

    Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi survey in Colorado found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Cory Gardner leads Democrat Senator Mark Udall 46 to 43 percent, with 10 percent unsure. In the gubernatorial matchup, Democrat Governor Hickenlooper leads his Republican opponent Bob Beauprez 49 to 44 percent, with 7 percent unsure.

    Coloradans listed the economy and jobs as the number one issue that is driving their decision on Election Day. Voters listed social issues and Obama’s job performance as the second and third most important issues to them. According to the survey, 51 percent of voters disagree with Governor John Hickenlooper’s comments that legalizing marijuana is a reckless decision and 49 percent agree with him.

    “Republicans chances of picking up the Colorado Senate seat still look good with Cory Gardner maintaining a steady lead over Mark Udall,” said Brent Seaborn. “The gubernatorial race is tight, with Democrat Governor Hickenlooper holding a slight lead over his Republican opponent Bob Beauprez.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 642 active voters in Colorado taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. 486 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 156 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 26-27, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the results, click here.

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  • New Poll: Tillis Leads Hagan in North Carolina

    on October 30, 2014

    Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi survey in North Carolina found that Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Thom Tillis is leading Democrat Senator Kay Hagan 48 to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

    The survey also found that President Obama’s approval ratings are at 41 percent in North Carolina. Additionally, North Carolina voters list the economy and jobs as the main issue driving their decision on Election Day, with President Obama’s job performance and ObamaCare coming in at second and third.

    “North Carolina remains a nail biter this election cycle,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn  “The race remains close with less than a week to go until Election Day. President Obama’s unpopularity in the state may help push Thom Tillis past the finish line this November.”

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 615 active voters in North Carolina taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.95%. 491 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 124 were conducted using mobile-based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 26-27, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To view the results, click here.

    » Read More
  • New LA Poll: Early Look at Governor’s Race Shows Senator Vitter Leading

    on October 28, 2014

    Vitter has Momentum Early
     

    Alexandria, VA - A new Vox Populi survey looks ahead to the Louisiana Governor’s race in 2015 and finds Republican Senator David Vitter holding an early lead with registered voters, with 32 percent saying they would vote for Vitter if the election were held today.  Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne (R) and Louisiana State House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards (D) each captured 14 percent support in this early poll. Another 8 percent gave their support to Jeremy Odom, a Baptist minister who is running as a Democrat.  Another 32 percent are undecided, which is unsurprising this far out from the election.

    METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 614 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.95%. 499 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 115 were conducted using mobile based survey technology. All interviews were conducted October 20 – October 22, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

    To see the results, click here

    » Read More
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8 out of 10 GOP Primary Voters Back Speaker

Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi Polling survey shows Speaker Paul Ryan is well positioned to win not only the August GOP primary, but also the November general election. The poll of likely voters in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District found Ryan is leading his Republican primary challenger by 73 points, and enjoys an almost 20 point lead over a generic Democratic candidate.

“It’s remarkable how well positioned Speaker Ryan is for re-election this year,” said Vox Populi Pollster Michael Meyers. “Looking at the results it is clear that Ryan’s opponent is not mounting a credible primary challenge and in the general election Ryan’s numbers are incredibly strong.”

Ryan is not only dominating his primary contest, but he also leads with every age group, both men and women, and carries a near 2-to-1 lead among Independent general election voters. Among all candidates tested with name ID above 50%, Ryan is the only candidate with a net-positive name ID (+12), having more voters view him favorably than unfavorably. With only 11% of voters undecided, a majority of 54% would vote for Ryan if the general election were held today.

In addition, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a dead heat race (38-38) inside Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.

To view the full results, click here.

Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 1,197 likely general election voters in Wisconsin CD-1 taken from a listed sample of registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.83%. 966 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 231 were conducted using mobile phones. All interviews were conducted May 22-23, 2016 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

 


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Alexandria, VA -- Vox Populi Polling recently conducted a survey amongst likely voters to analyze voter sentiment around the issue of the open Supreme Court Justice seat following the recent death of Justice Antonin Scalia.

Following a week of non-stop news coverage, polls indicate that the Supreme Court justice appointment is unlikely to impact voter decisions in the 2016 general election. Only 5% of likely voters believe the Supreme Court vacancy is the most important issue in deciding which presidential candidate to support, whereas 39% prioritized economic issues and 21% selected foreign affairs and national security. Similarly, voters indicated the most important issues for selecting a congressional candidate to support are the economy (37%) and foreign affairs (21%) with just 9% choosing the Supreme Court vacancy.

“Media coverage doesn’t necessarily translate to influencing voter priorities,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn. “Despite the glare of the media spotlight and intense political rhetoric on both sides, the polls show that the American people are far more concerned with economic and foreign policy issues in selecting the next President of the United States.”

More than a third (37%) of likely voters think President Obama should nominate a conservative to replace Justice Scalia, while 32% say that ideology should not matter in the selection process for a nominee. The poll also reveals:

  • The Supreme Court vacancy issue ranks last in importance for all presidential candidates except Hillary Clinton’s supporters, 15% of whom prioritized the vacancy.
  • Half of voters believe Obama should not wait in appointing a new Justice. 86% of Democrats want the President to appoint the new Supreme Court Justice while 68% of Republicans think it is too close to the end of his term.
  • Voters chose the two most polarized Justices (liberal Ruth Bader Ginsburg and conservative Clarence Thomas) as their “favorite” member of the bench. 14% of all respondents and 25% of Democrat respondents identify liberal Ruth Bader Ginsburg as their favorite justice, and 16% of the sample and 26% of polled Republicans recognize conservative Clarence Thomas as their favorite.

Methodology:  The sample size for the survey is 811 likely active voters. The margin of error is +/ 3.4. All interviews were completed using a mix of automated telephone and mobile-based survey technology on February 17-18, 2016 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

To view the full results, click here.

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“Support for strengthening online privacy spans across all ages, races and political affiliations. This level of support is typically unheard of in politics today. Considering implications for the upcoming 2016 elections, and the level of support among likely Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary voters, political candidates should take notice of this overwhelming support for ECPA reform,” said Michael Meyers of Vox Populi Polling. 

The Digital 4th coalition commissioned a national survey and two state surveys of active registered voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Read the full memo here.


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