Alexandria, VA – A new survey conducted by Vox Populi Polling amongst likely Kentucky voters found that the three-way race for Kentucky Governor remains tight and will likely come down to voter turnout.
Matt Bevin: 44%
Jack Conway: 44%
Drew Curtis: 6%
(moe: +/- 3.9%)
While the survey shows this is an exceptionally close race, Republican candidate Matt Bevin narrowly edges Democrat candidate Jack Conway 46-43 percent among self-reported Kentucky voters who say they will definitely head to the polls on Tuesday. Both candidates have an equal 79 percent share of their respective parties, but Bevin has a ten point advantage with Kentucky independents (38-28). Independent Drew Curtis is taking votes away from both candidates, but he is only slightly hurting Bevin’s numbers, with 43 percent of Curtis voters admitting they would vote for Bevin in a two-way race in comparison.
“This is a jump ball election that will hinge upon voter turnout for all three candidates,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn. “The numbers for Bevin and Conway are incredibly tight, and their partisan share is equal. And the wild card is a third party candidate polling at 6%, and another 7% are still undecided. The Kentucky gubernatorial election could come down to the wire as we watch the percentage of Republicans, Democrats, and independents who show up to the polls. Bevin has certainly closed the gap in recent weeks, but we’ll find out the full results on Tuesday.”
Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 618 active voters in the US taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2012 or 2014 general election or registered since the 2014 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. All interviews were conducted October 26-27, 2015 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
To view the full results, click here.
8 out of 10 GOP Primary Voters Back Speaker
Alexandria, VA – A new Vox Populi Polling survey shows Speaker Paul Ryan is well positioned to win not only the August GOP primary, but also the November general election. The poll of likely voters in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District found Ryan is leading his Republican primary challenger by 73 points, and enjoys an almost 20 point lead over a generic Democratic candidate.
“It’s remarkable how well positioned Speaker Ryan is for re-election this year,” said Vox Populi Pollster Michael Meyers. “Looking at the results it is clear that Ryan’s opponent is not mounting a credible primary challenge and in the general election Ryan’s numbers are incredibly strong.”
Ryan is not only dominating his primary contest, but he also leads with every age group, both men and women, and carries a near 2-to-1 lead among Independent general election voters. Among all candidates tested with name ID above 50%, Ryan is the only candidate with a net-positive name ID (+12), having more voters view him favorably than unfavorably. With only 11% of voters undecided, a majority of 54% would vote for Ryan if the general election were held today.
In addition, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a dead heat race (38-38) inside Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.
To view the full results, click here.
Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 1,197 likely general election voters in Wisconsin CD-1 taken from a listed sample of registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.83%. 966 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 231 were conducted using mobile phones. All interviews were conducted May 22-23, 2016 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Alexandria, VA -- Vox Populi Polling recently conducted a survey amongst likely voters to analyze voter sentiment around the issue of the open Supreme Court Justice seat following the recent death of Justice Antonin Scalia.
Following a week of non-stop news coverage, polls indicate that the Supreme Court justice appointment is unlikely to impact voter decisions in the 2016 general election. Only 5% of likely voters believe the Supreme Court vacancy is the most important issue in deciding which presidential candidate to support, whereas 39% prioritized economic issues and 21% selected foreign affairs and national security. Similarly, voters indicated the most important issues for selecting a congressional candidate to support are the economy (37%) and foreign affairs (21%) with just 9% choosing the Supreme Court vacancy.
“Media coverage doesn’t necessarily translate to influencing voter priorities,” said Vox Populi pollster Brent Seaborn. “Despite the glare of the media spotlight and intense political rhetoric on both sides, the polls show that the American people are far more concerned with economic and foreign policy issues in selecting the next President of the United States.”
More than a third (37%) of likely voters think President Obama should nominate a conservative to replace Justice Scalia, while 32% say that ideology should not matter in the selection process for a nominee. The poll also reveals:
Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 811 likely active voters. The margin of error is +/ 3.4. All interviews were completed using a mix of automated telephone and mobile-based survey technology on February 17-18, 2016 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
“Support for strengthening online privacy spans across all ages, races and political affiliations. This level of support is typically unheard of in politics today. Considering implications for the upcoming 2016 elections, and the level of support among likely Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary voters, political candidates should take notice of this overwhelming support for ECPA reform,” said Michael Meyers of Vox Populi Polling.
The Digital 4th coalition commissioned a national survey and two state surveys of active registered voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Read the full memo here.